Election Night Debrief: How Mikie Sherrill prevailed as the Democratic nominee

Despite being outspent by her opponents, Mikie Sherrill emerged as the Democratic nominee, winning the six-way field with 34% of the vote with Ras Baraka finishing second with 21%

Let’s debrief what happened on Tuesday night. Mikie Sherrill was projected to win the Democratic nomination within just 35 minutes. Within the first 10 minutes, we received results from Gloucester, Hudson, Cumberland, Camden, and Essex counties— all showing early signs that the contest was effectively over. Sherrill led in early voting in Hudson County and held a very narrow, but surprisingly, lead in Camden County’s vote-by-mail ballots, with Spiller and Sweeney trailing. In Gloucester County, Sweeney was ahead, but Sherrill placed a strong second. Meanwhile, in Cumberland County, Spiller had a narrow lead though many assumed that was a tabulation error. Finally, results came in from Essex County, where both Sherrill and Baraka performed well.

Let’s take a closer look at the final results. In Hudson County, Mikie Sherrill pulled off a surprising countywide victory, thanks in large part to strong backing from the County Democratic Organization, including endorsements from Chairman Craig Guy, Union City Mayor Brian Stack, West New York Mayor Albio Sires, and Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis.

Sherrill secured 68 percent of the vote in Union City, 61 percent in West New York, and 43 percent in Weehawken. Perhaps most notably, she managed to eke out a shocking win in Hoboken.

Meanwhile, Steve Fulop had an underwhelming performance in his home base of Jersey City, earning just 37 percent of the vote. Ras Baraka followed closely with 35 percent, gaining strong support from Black voters in the southern part of the city, along with progressives who split their backing between Baraka and Fulop. Fulop did manage to carry Bayonne, North Bergen, where he had the support of longtime Mayor Nicholas Sacco, and the PATH train hub of Harrison.

In Essex County, Ras Baraka secured strong margins among Black and Hispanic voters. He also performed well in commuter towns with progressive bases, such as Maplewood, South Orange, and Montclair. On the other hand, Mikie Sherrill held her ground in her 11th Congressional District, racking up overwhelming margins in Upper Montclair and across the suburbs of northwest Essex, including Cedar Grove, Verona, and the Caldwells. She also won in affluent communities like Millburn and Livingston.

Baraka finished with 73 percent of the vote in Newark, 69 percent in Irvington, 64 percent in Orange, and 61 percent in East Orange, which propelled him to a countywide victory. Sherrill, however, remained competitive among Black voters in the county, carrying diverse areas such as West Orange and Montclair. Whereas, Steve Fulop managed to win South Orange but lost Maplewood to Sherrill by just 1 percent.

In Passaic County, Mikie Sherrill received 35 percent of the vote, posting strong margins in suburbs like Wayne and dominating in Woodland Park and Totowa. These areas have significant Italian-American populations, a key demographic she will need to maintain support from in a general election matchup against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

Ras Baraka won the city of Paterson with 53 percent of the vote, followed by Sherrill at 20 percent and Spiller at 15 percent. Baraka also carried the city of Passaic with 42 percent. Josh Gottheimer, who had the backing of the Orthodox Jewish community, finished second there with 20 percent, while Sherrill took 16 percent.

In Clifton, Sherrill came out on top with 34 percent of the vote, compared to 27 percent for Baraka.

In Middlesex County, Mikie Sherrill won with 34 percent of the vote, compared to 21 percent for Steve Fulop. Sherrill performed well across this large and diverse county, with her strongest margins coming from Metuchen and Perth Amboy.

Steve Fulop, who was born in Edison, delivered his second-best performance outside of Hudson County. He received 28 percent of the vote in Edison, 25 percent in Old Bridge, and 24 percent in Monroe. However, these numbers were not enough for him to carry any municipality in the county.

Ras Baraka finished third in Middlesex with 20 percent of the vote, fueled by support from Black, Hispanic, and progressive voters. He won in New Brunswick, North Brunswick, Piscataway, and Highland Park.

Welcome to the Jersey Shore. In Monmouth and Ocean counties, Mikie Sherrill secured commanding victories, winning 44 percent of the vote in Monmouth and 36 percent in Ocean.

In Monmouth County, Steve Fulop finished second with 20 percent. His strongest showing came in Marlboro, a town with a large population of less religious Jewish voters, where he earned 29 percent. Sherrill dominated across the board, winning 52 out of the county’s 53 municipalities. The lone exception was the Borough of Deal, where only 17 votes were cast and Josh Gottheimer came out on top. Sherrill’s performance was especially strong in Middletown Township, the county’s largest municipality, where she received an impressive 50 percent in a six-way race.

In Ocean County, Gottheimer won a landslide in Lakewood, earning 77 percent of the vote with strong backing from Orthodox Jewish leaders who urged voters to support him. Sherrill won every other municipality in the county except Seaside Park, where Fulop garnered 41 percent. However, fewer than 150 total votes were cast there.

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In Burlington County, Mikie Sherrill delivered a strong performance across the board, winning the South Jersey county with 41 percent of the vote. Willingboro was the only municipality to back Ras Baraka, who received 37 percent there.

Sherrill performed well throughout this highly educated and diverse suburban county, with her strongest margin coming from Moorestown, the hometown of Senator Andy Kim.

Like colorful maps? Atlantic County came to play. Five different candidates won precincts here, making it one of the most competitive counties in the race. Mikie Sherrill pulled off a surprising first-place finish with 24 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out Sean Spiller and Steve Sweeney, who each finished with 19 percent.

Steve Fulop won Atlantic City with 30 percent of the vote, boosted by his alliance with Mayor Marty Small. Sherrill performed best along the coast, winning in towns like Brigantine and Ventnor City. She also carried Egg Harbor Township. Meanwhile, Sweeney secured victories in Hamilton Township and Buena Vista, showing strength in the inland parts of the county.

In the southernmost trio of counties, Steve Sweeney dominated Salem County, winning 41 percent of the vote. The county includes much of his former State Senate district.

Sean Spiller came in first in Cumberland County, narrowly edging out the competition in a fragmented field where four other candidates won at least one municipality. Spiller’s victories in the cities of Vineland and Millville were key to his countywide win.

In Cape May County, Mikie Sherrill led decisively with 39 percent of the vote. She won nearly every municipality, losing only North Wildwood and West Wildwood to Steve Sweeney.

Looking at the township map at the end of the night, Mikie Sherrill swept most of North and Central Jersey, with the exception of Bergen County towns located within Josh Gottheimer’s congressional district. Still, Sherrill managed to win working-class towns in South Bergen such as North Arlington and Lyndhurst, and she prevailed in highly educated commuter hubs like Ridgewood.

Ras Baraka carried many cities and suburbs with large Black and Hispanic populations across North and Central Jersey. Notable exceptions included Union City, West New York, Dover, and Perth Amboy where Sherrill won.

Baraka ultimately won Union County with 37 percent of the vote, driven by strong support in diverse municipalities such as Elizabeth, Plainfield, Roselle, Hillside, Linden, Rahway, and Union Township. Sherrill carried the rest of the county, including affluent and highly educated suburbs like Westfield, Cranford, and Summit.

Josh Gottheimer secured victories in more than 50 municipalities across Bergen County, benefiting from local support and strong name recognition as a sitting member of Congress.

Steve Sweeney performed well with white working-class voters in his home base of Salem and Gloucester counties, as well as parts of Camden County. However, Mikie Sherrill was able to cut into his South Jersey support by winning affluent, highly educated suburbs in Camden County and nearly sweeping Burlington County, where she won all but two towns. Sherrill finished with 41 percent of the vote in Burlington, an impressive showing in a county within the Philadelphia media market for a candidate from Montclair.

Statewide, Sherrill emerged as the clear winner just moments after polls closed. Her campaign was powered by the strongest ground game in the state, high favorability among the Democratic base, and a disciplined advertising strategy that ramped up over the final eight weeks. Her background as a Navy veteran resonated deeply with voters, and many saw her as the candidate best positioned to take on Donald Trump in November.

More interactive maps from other counties will be available soon. I would like to thank Varun Vishwanath and Garrett Herrin from VoteHub for providing interactive precinct maps and graphics for this article. Please go follow @votehubUS on Twitter.