The $100 Million Primary to be New Jersey's Next Governor

6 Democrats are running and outside dark money groups are planning to spend upwards of $70 million

May 12 was one of the first important deadlines for campaign finance reporting in New Jersey. All candidates running in the gubernatorial race had to file their fundraising and expenditures for the entire campaign to date. Here is what we learned — Mikie Sherrill, Steven Fulop, and Josh Gottheimer have raised enough money from donor and matching public funds to meet the $8.7 million spending cap on the candidates.

As of May 9, Fulop has spent 92% of that spending cap, Gottheimer has spent 80%, meanwhile Congresswoman Sherrill is only at 46%. Other candidates in this race, Steve Sweeney and Ras Baraka have raised $7.6 million and $5.4 million respectively and are still eligible for more public matching funds.

The Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) allows for a maximum of $5.5 million in matching funds, $2 received for every $1 raised. Sean Spiller is the lone candidate in the Democratic primary who is not eligible to receive matching public funding since he did not meet the $580,000 threshold.

But that is not all — outside spending will play a huge role in this primary. Working New Jersey, a Super PAC aligned with NJEA (the education union that Sean Spiller leads) has indicated they will $35 million on this primary on his behalf. Additionally, per the last FEC report filed on March 31, Congressman Josh Gottheimer has funneled at least $10 million from his federal congressional account to a super PAC named Affordable New Jersey. Gottheimer still has $11 million remaining in his federal account, which he can transfer to Super PACs at anytime. No Surrender and Affordable New Jersey are the two groups that have spent $14 million on TV ads supporting the congressman, according to the NJ Globe.

Coalition for Progress, a Federal Super PAC supporting Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, reported spending $4.7 million between January 1 and March 31 and transferred the remaining $6.5 million to the New Jersey edition of its Super PAC. That group has since spent an additional $5.2 million on behalf of Fulop, with $1.6 million remaining in the bank. Another committee named Workers For A Better New Jersey filed on April 29 indicating it plans to spend another $1.5 million in this primary. The organization is led by the same person who chairs Coalition for Progress and is presumed to be supporting Steven Fulop as well.

Like Gottheimer, Congresswoman Sherrill has also transferred money from her federal congressional account to the One Giant Leap, a super PAC supporting her in the primary. However, this was a significantly smaller amount, approximately $127,000 with only $27,000 left in her congressional account as of March 31. One Giant Leap had indicated, when filing paperwork, that it plans to spend $5 million on behalf of Sherrill.

One New Jersey United, an independent committee, has also filed paperwork indicating its intention to spend $600,000 on behalf of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Meanwhile, Building Bridges Voter Project has already spent $3.2 million on behalf of Sweeney and had $50k on hand as of March 31.

In terms of digital ads, $2.7 million has been spent on Google/YouTube Advertising since November 15, 2024 with Pro-Gottheimer ads accounting for a majority ($1.4 million), followed by Pro-Fulop ads at ~$760,000. On Facebook/Instagram, a little over $1 million has been spent on digital advertising in the last 90 days, with Working New Jersey ads on behalf of NJEA President Sean Spiller compromising the largest share.

Polling has indicated a consistent but narrow lead for Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill but her primary opponents and their aligned groups are spending big on TV and digital advertising. Will anyone catch up to Sherrill, who has the most institutional support of county parties in North and Central Jersey? We will find out soon.